Of all the scenarios that could trigger the final collapse of the Federal system, here’s one that should keep every Texan awake at night—and it’s not just possible. Given the current timeline of events, it’s probable.

Note: I have wrestled for days with the decision to post this article, primarily because I am not an alarmist. I know that every day when I wake up, I am one day closer to seeing Texas become an independent nation. I also know that the TNM’s process toward independence will work on an accelerated timeline if necessary. I finally made the decision to post it because others are starting to verbalize the potential for the scenario I discuss in this article in general terms. I want to make sure that readers know that I AM NOT MAKING A PREDICTION but showing the real probability of this scenario.

I want you to picture this scenario: It’s late November 2024. Donald Trump has won the presidential election. The streets of Manhattan are packed with protesters and counter-protesters as the President-elect makes his way to the courthouse. Inside, a New York judge prepares to do something unprecedented in American history – sentence the next President of the United States to serve time in one of America’s most notorious jails.

The images we could see that day would be seared into history: Secret Service agents standing helplessly by as New York corrections officers place the President-elect in handcuffs. A prison transport heading toward Rikers Island carrying the man who just received enough electoral votes to lead the Federal Government. News helicopters tracking the vehicle’s progress through the cramped streets of New York while millions watch in disbelief.

Let that sink in for a moment. This isn’t some fictional political thriller I’m writing. While this scenario may not unfold exactly as described, the very fact that it’s possible – even probable – reveals just how deeply broken the Federal system has become. The mere fact that we’re even discussing this scenario should shake every Texan to the core.

I’ve been warning about constitutional crises for years, but what we could potentially witness would make the 19th-century Civil War look like a married couple’s disagreement over where to have dinner. Half the States might refuse to recognize the authority of New York to imprison the President-elect. We could watch Federal marshals face off against State law enforcement. The Supreme Court would be forced to wade into waters so murky that no precedent exists to light the way.

The ripple effects could paralyze every level of government. State governors might be forced to choose between recognizing the authority of New York’s courts or the will of the electoral college. Military commanders could face impossible questions about the chain of command. Who would lead the transition team from prison? How could a President-elect take the oath of office from Rikers Island? What might happen to the nuclear codes and daily intelligence briefings? The same Federal Government that can’t stop millions of illegal aliens from pouring across our border might suddenly need to figure out how to run the executive branch from a jail cell.

But that could be just where this constitutional crisis would begin. We might then watch an even more dangerous scenario unfold. Democratic states and their allies in Congress could seize on the conviction to try and prevent Trump from taking office. They might argue that a convicted felon can’t serve as president despite no such prohibition existing in the Constitution. Some states might refuse to certify their electors. Others could try to switch their electoral votes to Harris, claiming a “constitutional emergency.”

Meanwhile, Republican states might proceed with their electoral certifications for Trump. We could witness the unthinkable – Congress splitting into factions, with some members attempting to reject electoral votes from Trump-supporting states while accepting those from states trying to install Harris. The country could face the prospect of two competing claims to the presidency – a President-elect sitting in Rikers Island and a Vice President claiming emergency succession powers.

Think that sounds far-fetched? Remember how certain states reacted during COVID-19, forming their own pacts and essentially ignoring federal authority. Now imagine that scenario with the presidency itself at stake. We could see states choosing which “president” to recognize, federal agencies split between competing commands, and the military caught in an impossible position regarding the chain of command.

The Supreme Court might be asked to step in, but any decision they make could be ignored by half the country. We could essentially have two competing federal governments – one claiming Trump as the legitimate president despite his imprisonment, the other rallying behind Harris claiming emergency authority. Each might declare the other illegitimate. Each could demand loyalty from federal agencies and the military.

For my fellow Texans, the plausibility of this scenario should serve as a final wake-up call. If the rest of the Union tears itself apart over questions that the Founders never imagined needing to answer, we would have a choice. We could remain shackled to this sinking ship, or we could chart our own course – just as our forefathers did in 1836 when faced with a government that had lost its way.

This isn’t about Trump or his legal troubles. This is about a Federal system that has created the conditions for a crisis it cannot survive. The same bureaucrats who can’t protect our southern border or keep our veterans from dying while waiting for healthcare might have to sort out whether a President-elect can serve from a jail cell.

I believe that if this scenario takes place, there wouldn’t be a peaceful resolution. The Federal Government’s authority could be shattered. The concept of equal justice under the law might be exposed as the fiction it has become. The Union, in its current form, would not survive the aftermath. We could be watching the death throes of a system that long ago abandoned the principles upon which it was founded.

The solution for Texas is simple: TEXIT. That’s why the Texas Nationalist Movement has spent years building the infrastructure for independence, developing relationships with local leaders, and creating the framework for a peaceful transition to self-governance. While others might panic if this crisis unfolds, we’ll be ready to help Texas navigate toward independence in an orderly, lawful manner.

We’ve been warning about the inherent instability of the Federal system for years. Now, as more Texans begin to see these dangers, they’re finding we’ve already laid the groundwork for a positive path forward. With hundreds of thousands of supporters across Texas, established relationships with local and state leaders, and nearly two decades of experience advancing the cause of independence, we’ve built the foundation Texas would need in any crisis.

The Texas Nationalist Movement isn’t just about pointing out problems. We’re about providing solutions. We’ve done the hard work of building a grassroots network in every corner of Texas. We’ve developed practical, legal frameworks for independence. We’ve created educational resources and policy proposals. If this constitutional crisis or any other catalyst pushes Texas toward independence, we’re prepared to help lead an orderly transition to self-governance.

While others might be shocked by the scenario I’ve described, we won’t be caught off guard. We’ve spent years preparing for various contingencies, building the necessary relationships, and developing the expertise Texas would need. That’s why more Texans trust the Texas Nationalist Movement to lead on independence than ever before.

The future is uncertain, but our mission remains clear: to secure and protect the political, cultural and economic independence of Texas. Whether this specific crisis unfolds or another catalyst emerges, the Texas Nationalist Movement will be ready to help Texas chart its course as a free and independent nation.

Ezekiel 33:1-6: The word of the Lord came to me: ² “Son of man, speak to your people and say to them: ‘When I bring the sword against a land, and the people of the land choose one of their men and make him their watchman, ³ and he sees the sword coming against the land and blows the trumpet to warn the people, ⁴ then if anyone hears the trumpet but does not heed the warning and the sword comes and takes their life, their blood will be on their own head. ⁵ Since they heard the sound of the trumpet but did not heed the warning, their blood will be on their own head. If they had heeded the warning, they would have saved themselves. ⁶ But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the trumpet to warn the people and the sword comes and takes someone’s life, that person’s life will be taken because of their sin, but I will hold the watchman accountable for their blood.’