Moving the Overton Window: How TEXIT Became Mainstream

In 1996, when I first encountered the idea that Texas could and should be an independent nation, speaking the words “Texas independence” was considered blasphemy of the highest order. The Federal Government classified advocacy for independence as domestic terrorism. The media branded us criminals. Many lost their jobs, their businesses, and some even lost their families.

Today, polling shows 60% of Texans support Texas peacefully becoming an independent nation. The Texas Legislature has seen bills introduced calling for an independence referendum. Major media outlets seriously discuss the mechanics of how an independent Texas would function. What was once unthinkable has become mainstream political discourse.

This transformation wasn’t accidental. It resulted from a deep understanding of how political change actually occurs and a deliberate strategy based on that understanding. At the heart of this change is a powerful concept in political theory known as the Overton Window.

Named after Joseph Overton of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, the Overton Window describes the range of ideas the public will accept at any given time. Ideas inside this “window of possibility” are politically viable. Ideas outside it are dismissed as too radical for serious consideration. However, the window isn’t fixed – it moves. Ideas that were once unthinkable can become acceptable. Policies that were once radical can become mainstream.

Understanding how the Overton Window moves, and how to move it, has been crucial to TEXIT’s success. It’s why we’ve been able to transform Texas independence from a fringe idea into a mainstream political position. It’s also why we know our ultimate success is inevitable.

Understanding the Overton Window

In the mid-1990s, Joseph Overton of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy articulated an observation that would revolutionize how we think about political change. He noted that in any given political climate, there’s a narrow “window” of acceptable policy ideas. Ideas within this window are politically viable. Ideas outside the window are dismissed as too radical or extreme for serious consideration.

The genius of Overton’s observation wasn’t just identifying this window – it was recognizing that the window moves. Ideas shift through six distinct stages:

  1. Unthinkable – Ideas considered too radical to discuss in polite company
  2. Radical – Ideas that can be discussed but are still considered extreme
  3. Acceptable – Ideas that can be openly debated
  4. Sensible – Ideas that are seen as reasonable solutions to problems
  5. Popular – Ideas that enjoy widespread support
  6. Policy – Ideas that become law

Overton’s most crucial insight was about the relationship between politicians and political change. Politicians, contrary to their own self-image, aren’t leaders of political change – they’re followers. Since their primary goal is re-election, they’ll only support ideas that already have some degree of public acceptance. Propose something outside the window of political possibilities, and they’ll run from it faster than a prairie dog from a rattler.

This understanding fundamentally changes how political movements must operate. The key to political change isn’t lobbying politicians – it’s shifting public perception. Move the window of what’s politically acceptable, and politicians will naturally follow.

The role of think tanks and advocacy organizations, therefore, isn’t to convince politicians but to convince voters. Their job is to use research, media, educational outreach, and grassroots advocacy to gradually slide the window until their preferred policy moves from unthinkable to acceptable and beyond.

Consider some historical examples. The United States itself was born when the idea of independence moved from unthinkable to policy. The Soviet Union collapsed when the independence of its constituent republics shifted from impossible to inevitable. Brexit succeeded when leaving the European Union moved from a fringe idea to a mainstream political position.

This understanding of how political change actually occurs – through shifting the boundaries of what’s politically possible rather than through traditional political pressure – formed the foundation of our strategy for advancing TEXIT.

The TNM’s Strategic Foundation

When we founded the Texas Nationalist Movement, we recognized that understanding the Overton Window had to shape every aspect of our organization. We weren’t just creating another political action committee or interest group – we were building an organization designed to systematically transform how Texans viewed independence.

Our early strategic decisions flowed directly from this understanding. While others demanded immediate political action or revolutionary rhetoric, we focused on gradually shifting public perception. We knew that lobbying politicians or running candidates would be premature and counterproductive until we’d moved TEXIT through the early stages of the Overton Window.

Three key insights shaped our strategic foundation:

First, we recognized that when TEXIT was considered “unthinkable,” our primary task wasn’t promoting independence – it was making independence discussable. We had to create an environment where Texans could seriously consider and debate the idea without fear of social or professional consequences.

Second, we understood that dramatic change happens gradually, then suddenly. Ideas must move through each stage of the window – you can’t skip steps. Trying to jump straight from “unthinkable” to “policy” would only reinforce resistance to the idea. This meant taking a long-term approach focused on steady progress rather than immediate results.

Third, we knew that traditional political approaches wouldn’t work for TEXIT. You can’t effectively promote an idea that people consider unthinkable. Standard political tactics like lobbying, campaign contributions, or running candidates would be useless until we’d shifted public perception of independence.

Instead of traditional political organizing, we structured our organization around moving the window. This meant:

  • Initially focusing on education rather than direct political pressure
  • Building credibility through serious research and analysis
  • Training our members in effective advocacy
  • Maintaining professional presentation at all times
  • Taking a long-term approach to change

Most importantly, we recognized that our success wouldn’t come from convincing politicians – it would come from convincing their voters. Until TEXIT moved through the early stages of the Overton Window, no amount of political pressure could succeed. Politicians don’t lead on issues this fundamental – they follow their constituents.

This understanding shaped not just our strategy but our entire organizational culture. We weren’t building just another political movement. We were creating an organization designed to systematically shift the boundaries of what Texans believed was politically possible.

Moving the Window: TNM’s Tactical Approach

Understanding the Overton Window led us to develop specific tactics designed to systematically shift public perception of TEXIT. Rather than traditional political methods, we implemented four key strategies that worked together to move Texas independence through each stage of the window.

Normalization Through Education: Our primary focus became educating Texans about their history, their rights, and the mechanics of independence. We produced detailed research showing how an independent Texas would function economically, how it would handle international relations, and how it would address practical challenges. This approach moved TEXIT from “unthinkable” to “radical” by making it comprehensible.

Professionalization of the Movement: We deliberately broke from the image of independence advocates as fringe radicals. Every public interaction had to meet professional standards. We trained our spokespeople to address concerns substantively rather than emotionally. Our research and analysis had to be thorough and well-documented. This helped move TEXIT from “radical” to “acceptable” by demonstrating credibility.

Mainstreaming the Message: We consistently framed independence not as a radical break but as a return to fundamental principles of self-government. We connected TEXIT to everyday concerns about Federal overreach, economic autonomy, and local control. By relating independence to common experiences and values, we helped move the idea from “acceptable” to “sensible.”

Strategic Media Engagement: When given media opportunities, we focused on education rather than confrontation. We presented TEXIT as a serious policy proposal worthy of discussion. Even when faced with hostile media, we maintained professional demeanor and focused on substance over emotion. This approach helped move the concept from “sensible” to “popular” by encouraging substantive debate.

Our tactical approach also included specific guidelines for advocacy:

  • Focus on Texas-based solutions as a contrast to federal dysfunction 
  • Present independence as practical rather than emotional
  • Address concerns directly rather than dismissing them
  • Use data and research to support arguments
  • Maintain a professional demeanor even when attacked
  • Connect TEXIT to fundamental principles rather than partisan politics

Most importantly, we maintained message discipline. Every communication, every event, every action was designed to move TEXIT through the stages of the Overton Window. Our members were taught to understand that a single unprofessional interaction could undo months or years of careful work in shifting public perception.

We also recognized the crucial difference between traditional political pressure and moving the window. Political pressure tries to force change within the existing window of possibilities. Our approach focused on shifting the window itself, making previously unthinkable ideas not just possible but inevitable.

This tactical approach has proven remarkably effective. By focusing on systematically shifting public perception rather than traditional political activism, we’ve moved TEXIT from the fringes of political discourse to the center of serious policy debate.

Measuring the Movement

When measuring TEXIT’s movement through the Overton Window, the evidence isn’t just compelling – it’s overwhelming. The transformation from “unthinkable” to mainstream hasn’t been accidental or organic. It’s been the direct result of the Texas Nationalist Movement’s systematic strategy to shift public perception.

Let’s be clear: while others talked about Texas independence in abstract terms or engaged in counterproductive rhetoric, the TNM built the infrastructure and executed the strategy that has fundamentally transformed the political landscape. The metrics of this transformation are undeniable.

First, consider the polling data. The 2022 SurveyUSA poll revealed that 60% of Texans now support Texas peacefully becoming an independent country. This wasn’t just a slim majority – it showed 32% saying “definitely yes” and another 28% saying “yes.” Remember, in the 1990s, support for independence was considered so marginal that pollsters didn’t even bother measuring it. This dramatic shift didn’t happen by accident – it resulted from years of careful work by TNM to systematically move TEXIT through each stage of the Overton Window.

The breadth of this support is particularly telling. While others focused on narrow ideological appeals, TNM’s strategic approach built support across the political spectrum. Yes, 73% of Republicans support independence (40% definitely yes, 33% somewhat yes), but the real achievement has been building 54% support among both Democrats and Independents. This cross-partisan appeal proves that our strategy of focusing on fundamental principles rather than partisan politics was exactly right.

The generational demographics validate another key strategic decision. By maintaining professional presentation and focusing on practical solutions rather than grievances, we’ve built overwhelming support among younger Texans – 67% among ages 18-34 and 62% among ages 35-49. While others were focused on short-term political wins, we were building support among the generations who will shape Texas’s future.

The TNM’s influence on political discourse has been equally dramatic. When we first began advocating for an independence referendum, the idea was dismissed as impossible. Now, the Texas Independence Referendum Act has been filed in two consecutive legislative sessions. This didn’t happen through traditional lobbying – it happened because we successfully shifted public perception to the point where legislators had to respond.

Our impact on Texas’s dominant political party has been particularly striking. The Republican Party of Texas has now added two planks to its platform calling for a vote on Texas independence. This represents exactly the kind of institutional shift that the Overton Window theory predicts – as public perception changes, political institutions naturally follow. The TNM didn’t achieve this through back-room deals or conventional political pressure – we achieved it by systematically shifting the boundaries of what’s politically possible.

The growth of TNM itself tells an important story. With over 600,000 registered supporters, we’ve built one of the largest state-level political movements in Texas history. Unlike traditional political organizations that rely on election cycles and campaign contributions, we’ve built sustainable support through education, advocacy, and professional engagement. Every one of those supporters represents someone who has moved through the stages of the Overton Window, from considering independence “unthinkable” to seeing it as necessary.

The media transformation has been particularly dramatic and measurable. When TNM began its work, major media outlets either ignored independence or treated it as a joke. Through maintaining professional presentation and focusing on substantive arguments rather than rhetoric, we’ve forced a fundamental shift in coverage that perfectly demonstrates the movement of TEXIT through the Overton Window.

This shift became especially apparent after 2016, when major national and international outlets, including Newsweek, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Reuters, and the BBC began providing serious coverage of TEXIT. While many still publicly dismiss the idea as fringe, their protestations about our very existence betray their true concern that we are close to winning Texas independence and the TNM’s growing influence is a threat to their imposed political order. This represents exactly the kind of transformation the Overton Window theory predicts as ideas move from “radical” to “acceptable.”

Local Texas media coverage demonstrates an even more dramatic evolution. The Texas Tribune, Houston Chronicle, and Dallas Morning News have moved from sporadic, dismissive coverage to regular, substantive reporting on TNM activities and TEXIT-related developments. This shift in local media attention reflects the movement of independence from the margins to the mainstream of Texas political discourse.

Particularly telling is how media coverage has evolved during periods of political tension. While early coverage might have portrayed TEXIT as merely a reaction to political frustration, contemporary reporting increasingly focuses on the practical mechanics of independence and the growing institutional support for a referendum. When state legislators introduce bills related to Texas independence, media coverage now centers on the legislative process rather than dismissing the proposal out of hand.

TNM’s sophisticated media strategy has played a crucial role in this transformation. While others engaged in confrontational rhetoric or publicity stunts, we’ve consistently presented TEXIT as a serious policy proposal worthy of thoughtful consideration. Our press releases, social media campaigns, and public events have maintained professional standards that make it increasingly difficult for media outlets to dismiss the movement.

The amplification effect of social media has been particularly powerful. TNM’s social media presence has grown to exceed that of both major political parties in Texas combined. This digital footprint has forced traditional media to acknowledge the breadth and depth of support for independence, leading to more substantive coverage of TEXIT.

Perhaps the most significant metric comes from the SurveyUSA poll’s findings on institutional trust. The fact that 43% of Texans trust the Texas state government more than the Federal government (with only 26% trusting the Federal government more) validates TNM’s core strategy. By consistently focusing on the practical benefits of self-governance rather than grievance politics, we’ve built a foundation of support based on fundamental principles rather than temporary political passions.

The poll also revealed the depth of commitment to TEXIT. When asked about taking action, 34% of Texans said they would volunteer their time to advance independence, and 28% would contribute financially. These numbers represent more than just passive support – they represent the type of committed backing that moves ideas from “popular” to “policy.”

This transformation in public opinion and political possibility didn’t happen by chance. It happened because TNM understood how political change actually occurs and built an organization designed to systematically shift the Overton Window. While others engaged in rhetorical battles or traditional political tactics, we focused on the fundamental task of transforming how Texans view independence.

The success of this approach is now undeniable. What was once “unthinkable” has become mainstream political discourse. What was once dismissed as impossible is now seen as practically inevitable. This transformation represents exactly what the Overton Window theory predicts – and exactly what TNM was designed to achieve.

The Window Today

TEXIT now sits firmly in the “popular” stage of the Overton Window, having successfully moved through “unthinkable,” “radical,” “acceptable,” and “sensible.” The final transition to “policy” is not just possible – it’s inevitable. However, this final stage requires the most precise and strategic approach yet.

Our current position brings both unprecedented opportunities and unique challenges. With 60% public support, TEXIT has achieved the popular backing necessary for political action. The question is no longer whether Texans support independence – it’s how we transform that support into concrete policy outcomes.

The next steps are clear. While others might be tempted to rest on the achievement of majority support, TNM understands that moving from “popular” to “policy” requires specific, strategic actions:

First, we must continue expanding institutional support. The Republican Party of Texas’s platform planks supporting an independence referendum represent a crucial breakthrough, but we need to build similar support across other institutions. This means continued professional engagement with civic organizations, business groups, and local governments.

Second, we must transform general support into active engagement. The fact that 34% of Texans are willing to volunteer time and 28% would contribute financially provides a massive pool of potential activists. Our task is to convert this latent support into organized action while maintaining the professional standards that got us here.

Third, we must focus on the mechanics of independence. The public increasingly accepts TEXIT as desirable – now they need to see it as practical. This means producing detailed plans for transition, building relationships with potential international allies, and developing specific proposals for post-independence governance.

The challenges ahead are substantial but surmountable. The Federal Government’s deteriorating fiscal position and growing dysfunction work in our favor, but they also create uncertainty that our opponents will try to exploit. We must continue presenting TEXIT as a positive step toward self-governance rather than merely a reaction to Federal failures.

The increasing polarization of American politics presents both opportunity and challenge. While it makes the case for peaceful separation more compelling, it also risks drawing TEXIT into partisan battles that could limit its appeal. We must maintain our cross-partisan approach while the political atmosphere grows more divided.

International developments create new opportunities. The success of peaceful separation movements worldwide provides both precedent and practical examples for TEXIT. The growing recognition of self-determination as a fundamental right strengthens our position in international law. However, we must carefully manage international relationships to ensure support for peaceful separation.

The economy presents particular opportunities. Texas’s economic strength makes independence increasingly practical, but economic uncertainty could make some Texans hesitant about major political changes. We must continue demonstrating how independence would enhance rather than disrupt Texas’s prosperity.

Most importantly, we must maintain the disciplined approach that has brought us this far. The temptation in the final stage is to rush, to push too hard, too fast. This is precisely when we must remember the lessons of the Overton Window – political change happens systematically, not spontaneously.

The path forward requires the same strategic patience that has defined TNM’s approach from the beginning. We must continue building support across demographic and political lines. We must maintain professional standards in all communications and actions. We must focus on practical solutions rather than grievances.

The final movement of TEXIT through the Overton Window is not just possible – it’s underway. The transition from “popular” to “policy” follows the same principles that have guided our success so far. By maintaining strategic discipline and continuing our systematic approach to shifting public perception, we will complete TEXIT’s journey through the window.

The numbers tell us where we are. The history of successful independence movements tells us where we’re going. And TNM’s proven strategy tells us how we’ll get there. The window has moved steadily in our direction, and its final movement is now clearly in sight.

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