Federal Trust Hits Rock Bottom As New Poll Shows Texans Ready for Self-Governance

A new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs confirms what the Texas Nationalist Movement has long maintained: Texans have lost faith in the federal government and are ready for self-governance. The numbers paint a stark picture of a state population that sees itself thriving despite Washington's failures, not because of federal oversight.

The comprehensive survey, conducted in January 2025, reveals that a mere 19% of Texans trust the federal government to do what is right most of the time-an astounding vote of no confidence in Washington's ability to govern. Even more telling, 61% of Texans believe the United States is on the wrong track, while a majority (54%) see Texas headed in the right direction.

"These poll numbers should be taken as a clear mandate for change," says TNM President Daniel Miller. "When four out of five Texans don't trust the federal government, it's beyond time to give Texans a vote on independence."

The Trust Gap

The poll's findings on institutional trust are particularly damning for defenders of the status quo. While state and local governments in Texas hover around 31-32% trust levels-still higher than Washington-these numbers demonstrate a broader crisis of confidence in government institutions. However, the significant gap between federal and state trust levels suggests Texans maintain more faith in local control than distant federal bureaucracy.

Republican Base Signals Independence Support

Among Republicans, who represent the dominant political force in Texas, the contrast between state and federal outlook is even more pronounced. An overwhelming 76% of Republicans believe Texas is headed in the right direction, while significantly fewer feel positively about the U.S. trajectory. This 26-point gap represents a crucial opening for the TEXIT movement, particularly among the state's most active voters.

Election Integrity and Local Control

Perhaps most significantly, Texans show overwhelming support for measures that would strengthen state sovereignty and reduce federal influence:

• 86% support requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration
• 83% back banning taxpayer-funded lobbying
• 77% favor independent redistricting
• 77% support non-partisan judicial selection

These numbers reveal a clear pattern: Texans want control over their own systems of governance, free from federal interference. The strong support for election integrity measures particularly undermines Washington's attempts to federalize election procedures.

The Path Forward

This poll arrives at a crucial moment for the Texas independence movement. With trust in federal institutions at historic lows and Texans clearly signaling their preference for state-level solutions, the case for TEXIT has never been stronger.

"What we're seeing isn't just dissatisfaction with particular federal policies," Miller explains. "It's a fundamental breakdown in Texans' belief that Washington can or should govern Texas. When you combine rock-bottom federal trust with strong support for Texas sovereignty, the logical conclusion is independence."

The data also suggests a clear strategy forward for TNM. With Republicans showing the strongest support for Texas autonomy, focusing on this base while emphasizing practical governance issues-like election integrity and local control-could help build broader support for independence.

About the Poll

The University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted this survey between January 13-21, 2025, polling 1,200 Texas adults in both English and Spanish. The survey's margin of error is ±2.83%, and the sample was carefully weighted to match Texas demographics across gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels.

The message from this poll is clear: Texans trust Texas more than Washington, believe their state is on a better path than the nation, and overwhelmingly support measures that would increase state sovereignty. These aren't just data points-they're stepping stones on the path to Texas independence.